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No, Small Drones are Not Going Away Soon
Despite optimism in Eurosatory, small UAVs are still a nuisance, are here to stay, and will become more and more intolerable.
The growing availability of comercial-off-the-shelf drones and their DIY components will only proliferate aerial payload delivery capability.
The boom in interest and new entry to the market of non-kinetic C-sUAV electronics is not a knee-jerk reaction, but sensible solution to tactical low-air protection.
Jul 2nd,2024
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French Army Chief of Staff General Pierre Schill said in his speech at Eurosatory that jury-rigged small UAV carrying RPG warheads are only "a moment in history". But ceremonious platitudes aside, even if Russo-Ukraine conflict was only a bad lesson to learn from, like that of the Iraq War for the Americans in the light of near-peer competition, small UAVs are not a moment in history, but a steadly growing torrent. They are not going out of fashion soon.
Historical Context of sUAV in military capacity
The begining of commercially viable, consumer-grade quadcopter can be traced back to the groundbreaking launch of the original DJI Phantom in 2013. The significance of DJI Phantom is trifold: it was easy to obtain and use, it was ready to fly right out of the box, and it only costed $629. Later that year, DJI released Phantom 2 Vision, brought real-time flight video feed and telemetry onto the operator's smart phone, and thus greatly expanded its effective range.
At the time, global security situation has reached a new stage of instability: the fire of Arab Spring has burned on for more than a year, Syria was in disarray, the GOWT was still in progress, Ukraine was on the verge of Maidan Protest, and Iraq was brimming with conflicts, soon to culminate in the onslaught of Daesh, the self-proclaimed "Islamic State".
These regional instabilities and conflicts had the common trait of low technical equipment on the field. Necessity called for innovation, and small drones answered to their problem. Almost immediately, these quadcopters were armed with various attachments and were sent for reconnaissance, forward observation, and payload delivery, i.e. strictly military operations.
And the rest is history: Daesh using DJI to drop grenades on Syrian Arab Army, military application of DJI drones in the Donbas region, emergence of Israelis Drone Dome, Australian DroneGun Mk1, and other first-generation anti-drone system, DJI geofencing Middle East, introduction of DJI Aeroscope, assassination attempt on Marudo, Ukranian Mavic dropping grenade in 2022, tanks destroyed by RPG warhead on racing FPV drones, proliferation of FPV drone technique via Telegram, US DoD proposition of Replicator Program, unveilment of projects like Anduril's Roadrunner and Eric Schmidt's White Stork (later renamed Project Eagle), and here we are today.
Looking back, we are almost at the mark of one full decade of small UAV fielded in combat capacity, and this trend does not seem to die down. This situation is looking less like "a moment in history" and more like a feature here to stay.
The Irreplacable Features of Small UAV
Aerial Surveillance
Portability
Cost of Use
Payload Delivery
Range
